中国老年人照护劳动力需求及应对策略

English | 2024 | ISBN-10: 9819751527 | 203 pages| Epub PDF (True) | 16 MB

This book employs Markov models and propensity score matching methods to analyze the demand for elderly care labor, utilizing data from the China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022). The model predicts the health transferring scenario among the aging population firstly, and then the demand for elderly care labor from 2022 to 2058 under a fixed care time demand scenario according to 8-hour working system, as well as national and provincial regulations on caregiver-carereceiver ratios. The accelerated aging process and rapid increase in the younger elderly population will result in a rapid increase in the demand for elderly care labor for the healthy elderly until about 2042, with a 1.5-fold increase. This is followed by accelerated growth in the demand for elderly care labor for the impaired and dysfunctional aging population. Over time, the supply of older adults without care will gradually increase, nearly doubling by 2058 compared to 2022. It is recommended that on the one hand, eldercare labor demand in China can be reduced from the origin by improving the health of the population; and on the other hand, the effective supply of elderly care be expanded by building a modern care service system, improving relevant policies, integrating care resources, and innovating the supply model.

这本书使用马尔可夫模型和倾向得分匹配方法分析了养老服务的需求，数据来自中国纵向健康长寿调查（CLHLS）和2022年世界人口展望（联合国，2022）。该模型首先预测了老龄化人群中的健康转移场景，然后在固定护理时间需求情景下，即按照8小时工作制度，预测从2022年至2058年的养老服务劳动力需求，并根据国家和省级关于照护者-被照护者比例的规定。加速老化过程以及年轻老年人口的迅速增长将导致到大约2042年，健康老年人群的养老服务劳动力需求急剧增加，这期间的需求会翻一番，达到1.5倍。随后，由于失能和功能障碍老龄人口的加速增长，对于这些群体的养老服务劳动力需求也将快速增长。随着时间推移，没有接受护理的老龄人群的供应将逐渐增加，在2058年相比2022年的基础上几乎翻了一番。建议一方面通过提高人口健康水平来从源头减少中国的养老服务劳动力需求；另一方面，则应通过建立现代照护服务体系、完善相关政策、整合照护资源和创新供给模式，扩大有效的养老服务供应量。

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