新冠病毒情报失败：警告已经足够了吗？

English | 232 pages | Georgetown University Press (February 1, 2023) | 1647123062 | EPUB,PDF | 7 Mb

An in-depth analysis of why COVID-19 warnings failed and how to avert the next disaster

Epidemiologists and national security agencies warned for years about the potential for a deadly pandemic, but in the end global surveillance and warning systems were not enough to avert the COVID-19 disaster. In The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure, Erik J. Dahl demonstrates that understanding how intelligence warnings work―and how they fail―shows why the years of predictions were not enough.

In the first in-depth analysis of the topic, Dahl examines the roles that both traditional intelligence services and medical intelligence and surveillance systems play in providing advance warning against public health threats―and how these systems must be improved for the future. For intelligence to effectively mitigate threats, specific, tactical-level warnings must be collected and shared in real time with receptive decision makers who will take appropriate action. Dahl shows how a combination of late and insufficient warnings about COVID-19, the Trump administration's political aversion to scientific advice, and decentralized public health systems all exacerbated the pandemic in the United States. Dahl's analysis draws parallels to other warning failures that preceded major catastrophes from Pearl Harbor to 9/11, placing current events in context.

The COVID-19 Intelligence Failure is a wake-up call for the United States and the international community to improve their national security, medical, and public health intelligence systems and capabilities.

对新冠病毒警告为何失败的深入分析及如何防止下一场灾难的到来

传染病学家和国家安全机构多年来一直在警告潜在致命的大流行，但最终全球监控和预警系统还是未能避免新冠大流行的灾难。在《2019冠状病毒情报失败》中，埃里克·J·达尔展示了理解情报警告是如何运作以及它们为何失败的，从而说明了多年来的预测并不足够。

在这项研究中的首个深入分析，《新冠病毒情报失败》探讨传统情报服务和医疗情报及监视系统在提供公共健康威胁早期预警方面所扮演的角色——以及这些系统需要如何改进以应对未来。为了有效地缓解威胁，情报必须实时收集并分享具体战术级别的警告信息，以便被合适的决策者接收，并采取适当行动。达尔展示了关于新冠病毒的警告不足、特朗普政府的政治厌恶科学研究建议，加上分散的公共卫生系统，都加剧了美国的大流行。

《2019冠状病毒情报失败》是美国和国际社会改善其国家安全、医疗和公共卫生情报系统与能力的一次警醒。

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