概率：方法与测量

English | PDF | 1988 | 303 Pages | ISBN : 9401070385 | 32.7 MB

This book is an elementary and practical introduction to probability theory. It differs from other introductory texts in two important respects. First, the per­ sonal (or subjective) view of probability is adopted throughout. Second, emphasis is placed on how values are assigned to probabilities in practice, i.e. the measurement of probabilities. The personal approach to probability is in many ways more natural than other current formulations, and can also provide a broader view of the subject. It thus has a unifying effect. It has also assumed great importance recently because of the growth of Bayesian Statistics. Personal probability is essential for modern Bayesian methods, and it can be difficult for students who have learnt a different view of probability to adapt to Bayesian thinking. This book has been produced in response to that difficulty, to present a thorough introduction to probability from scratch, and entirely in the personal framework.

这本书是一本基础且实用的概率论入门书。它与其它介绍性书籍的不同之处在于有两个重要方面。首先，书中始终采用个人（或主观）的观点来阐述概率理论；其次，本书强调了实践中如何赋予概率值的问题，也就是概率的测量问题。与当前其它许多描述方式相比，以个人视角看待概率在很多地方来说显得更为自然，并且也能提供一个更广阔的视角。因此，它具有整合的作用。近年来，由于贝叶斯统计学的发展，这种以个人视角来处理概率的观点变得更加重要。对于现代的贝叶斯方法而言，理解个人概率是至关重要的，而对学习了其它概率观点的学生来说，适应贝叶斯思维可能会比较困难。这本书就是针对这个难题应运而生的，旨在从基础开始介绍概率论，并完全以个人视角来呈现。

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